Arthur Hayes新文：比特币四年牛市周期或失效，美元与人民币流动性成关键变量 💹
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently published a new article titled "Long Live the King!" where he examines the historical correlation between Bitcoin peaks and the changes in the "price and supply" of USD and RMB. Hayes notes that the current cycle differs from the previous four-year pattern.
He reviews the three cycles from 2009 to 2021, pointing out that Bitcoin tends to peak and then fall when USD/RMB credit growth slows or contracts and interest rates rise. Conversely, prices strengthen during massive USD QE or aggressive Chinese credit expansion.
The article suggests that the Federal Reserve's inclination to lower interest rates and expand monetary supply, along with China's signals of ending deflation and moderate credit enhancements, could extend the current surge.
相关文章（19）
Arthur Hayes拆解债务、回购与印钞：美元流动性的终极循环
Arthur Hayes评日本新经济政策：将助推比特币涨至100万美元
Arthur Hayes 评日本新经济政策，将助推比特币涨至 100 万美元
Arthur Hayes：ZEC 或将涨至 1 万美元
Arthur Hayes：TradFi 的新流行叙事是“贬值交易”，他们不会在意加密的“四年周期”
Arthur Hayes：TradFi的新流行叙事是「贬值交易」，他们不会在意加密的「四年周期」
比特币周期已死：Hayes 认为减半不再主导市场
Arthur Hayes点评日本经济政策：将推动比特币达到2亿日元，约130万美元
Arthur Hayes 点评日本经济政策，将推动比特币达到 2 亿日元，约 130 万美元
Arthur Hayes预警：「隐形QE」或将重启，可能引爆下一轮比特币牛市
Arthur Hayes：美国政府停摆结束时BTC将上涨，而ZEC的涨幅将更高
Arthur Hayes：当美国政府停摆结束，BTC 将上涨，ZEC 也将上涨
Arthur Hayes：共和党被民主党彻底击败，是时候重启印钞机
Arthur Hayes 拆解债务、回购与印钞：美元流动性的终极循环
Arthur Hayes：共和党被民主党彻底击败，是时候重启印钞机
Arthur Hayes重申货币政策才是推动比特币的真正力量
Arthur Hayes喊单BTC和ZEC，引用「美政府停摆即将结束」利好
Arthur Hayes：比特币及 ZEC 将迎来上涨
