Grayscale has filed with the SEC to convert its Grayscale Solana Trust into an ETF to be listed on NYSE Arca. Despite this move, prediction markets express doubt, with a 23% approval probability for Q2 2025 on Polymarket.

Broader expectations for any 2025 approval have declined to 83% from earlier this year. This uncertainty stems from the SEC extending review timelines for ETFs linked to Solana and XRP.

Current interim SEC chair Mark Uyeda hasn’t shown much change in stance, especially as a permanent chair is yet to be decided.

While Grayscale's latest filing excludes staking, potentially speeding up the process, market analysts believe the SEC could be open to other altcoin ETFs, placing Solana in a favorable position.